Hyperstition #11 — May 15, 2025
Wen Lambo: Prediction markets for car speculation
Wen Lambo: Prediction markets for car speculation
This post was authored by Moonraker
Car enjoyers love to speculate about big news from the auto industry and developments in motorsports. But despite prediction markets for F1 outcomes, no platform has embraced the perennial question of which make will be next to kill an iconic model or design element.
Car culture predictions are a rich source of potential markets. YouTube channels, articles, and forums are full of ongoing debates and rumors: Will Porsche use a hybrid engine in the 911 turbo after the 992.2 generation? Will Lamborghini retire the iconic V10? Will Audi start making an RS6 sedan again?
Notably, Kalshi has a few markets that get at these issues, such as one on whether a Tesla will appear in a Presidential motorcade before 2026, and some markets on production numbers.
Thriving betting scene
The idea of wagering on automotive outcomes isn’t novel — it already thrives in motorsports.
Formula 1 fans, for instance, bet on who will win the driver’s championship or who will have a podium finish in the next race. Traditional sportsbooks and online platforms take F1 bets every Grand Prix weekend. Some platforms, like the Azuro protocol, have found strong user interest by focusing on sports events.
In fact, crypto-powered Polymarket, initially famous for political bets, signaled a big pivot toward sports after the 2024 U.S. elections to capture more of this demand. Motorsports are just the tip of the iceberg — proving that if fans can bet on it, they will.
Imagine turning your insightful car predictions into actual stakes. If everyone on the subreddit is sure Porsche will announce an all-electric 911 by 2030, why not put some crypto on the line to make it fun? Prediction markets could turbocharge the excitement of car speculation. It’s a fun, constructive way to harness the collective wisdom of the car community.
Aggregating knowledge
There’s also a potentially unforeseen benefit: a prediction market for auto news might actually aggregate knowledge.
Just as markets can forecast elections or sports upsets, they could crowdsource the probability of, say, “Will Lamborghini’s next flagship be fully electric by 2028?” The odds generated (by real bettors) would signal what the community really thinks will happen, cutting through mere hype. In other words, it’s wisdom-of-crowds meets car fandom.
Another corner of the car world ripe for prediction markets is the booming online auction scene. Platforms like Bring a Trailer and Cars & Bids have turned obscure vintage cars into headline-grabbing investments.
Every day, enthusiasts are already guessing final hammer prices in the comments: “That one will easily clear six figures,” or “No way it breaks $50k.” Formalizing these guesses into a betting market is a logical next step.
For example, consider a stunning 911 (964) Turbo S coming up for sale – will it close for over $300,000? Some Porsche enjoyers note that nice examples of the 964 Turbo 3.6 have started breaking the $300K price point, so an over/under market on that auction would draw plenty of attention.
Such markets could be both entertaining and informative. They’d let observers put skin in the game on their price predictions, and simultaneously crowdsource what a car might really be worth.
If 80% of bettors are confident a certain rare Ferrari will top $1 million, that tells us something. It’s like Antiques Roadshow meets Vegas odds; and for the crypto-savvy car enthusiast, it blends two passions into one.
Turning the ignition
To get things rolling, here’s a list of potential automotive prediction markets that don’t exist yet – but absolutely should. (Who knows, you might see these on a prediction market platform soon!)
Will Porsche announce the end of gas-powered 911s by 2030?
Toyota MR2 Revival by 2026?
Lambo’s Engine Gamble: Will Lamborghini’s next flagship supercar be all-electric?
F1 Driver Team Switch: Will a top Formula 1 driver switch teams for next season (e.g. Lando Norris to Red Bull by 2026)?
Auction Price Over/Under: For example, over/under $300k on an upcoming Porsche 964 Turbo S auction result.
Retro Nameplate Comeback: Will General Motors resurrect the Pontiac Trans Am name by 2030?
Manual Transmission’s Last Stand: Bet on which model year will see the last new production car sold with a stick-shift.