Hyperstition #6 — May 8, 2025
Doodles preps DOOD airdrop, bettors call Fed hold, and more.
Doodles NFT brand preps Solana airdrop
Doodles is the biggest NFT project since Pudgy Penguins to launch a token.
Using PENGU as a comp puts DOOD’s post-airdrop market cap at $250-$300 million.
PENGU has a pending ETF, but DOOD has a clearer value-prop.
Doodles, an Ethereum-based non-fungible token (NFT) brand, has tipped plans to launch its native token, DOOD, on Solana this Friday.
On May 9, the project will airdrop 30% of DOOD’s total supply to Doodles NFT holders, Doodles said in a May 6 X post.
It will distribute another 13% to a group Doodles calls ‘New Blood’ — members of partner projects such as ElizaOS, Helius and the BONK memecoin community.
Doodles is the largest NFT brand to launch a token since Pudgy Penguins airdropped PENGU in December. It continues the trend of Ethereum-native NFT projects launching tokens on Solana.
Valuation Forecasts
Doodles’ NFTs — which number in the tens of thousands across several collections — are cumulatively worth roughly $62 million, according to data from CoinGecko.
As of May 7, individual NFTs in the core Doodles collection list on OpenSea, an NFT marketplace, for approximately 3.5 Ether, or over $6,000.
“[T]he NFTs themselves will be repriced aggressively upon airdrop,” NFT collector Natealex said in a May 7 X post.
Pudgy Penguins NFTs traded as high as $120,000 each prior to the project’s December airdrop. They immediately declined in price by about 50% once the airdrop finished.
Pre-airdrop NFTs usually price-in the expected value of the token distribution.
The PENGU token debuted at a market capitalization of roughly $2.8 billion at a time when the aggregate value of Pudgy Penguins NFTs was more than $500 million.
That ratio has been reasonably steady. As of May 7, PENGU trades at a market cap of roughly $700 million, according to CoinGecko. Its NFT collection is worth roughly $185 million.
Assuming a similar ratio for DOOD would put the post-airdrop market cap (very roughly) at between $250 and $300 million.
The PENGU token’s valuation benefits from expected institutional inflows following the launch of Canary’s PENGU exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US. The proposed fund was filed in March but awaits regulatory review.
But Doodles has articulated a clearer value proposition for its native token than Pudgy Penguins, which “has not announced any particular use for PENGU” according to Canary’s March regulatory filing.
Tokenomics Vision
Doodles’ vision for DOOD is ambitious.
The token is designed to power artificially-intelligent characters inhabiting an open-ended storytelling universe fashioned on the Doodles NFT franchise.
Each will be represented by a token with speculative value, creating opportunities to profit off of thoughtful character creation, according to Doodles’ whitepaper.
Eventually, the project aims to expand beyond Doodles, creating a network of interconnected worlds called DreamNet. (See this thread by Michael Litman of Digital Frontier for an excellent summary).
Progress has been limited so far. DreamNet will be housed on Base, an Ethereum layer-2, implying that DOOD will eventually need to be bridged over from Solana.
In 2024, Doodles debuted a 20-minute short film at the Toronto Film Festival called Dullsville and the Doodleverse.
In Other News…
Prediction markets accurately forecast Fed rate hold
Prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi accurately forecasted the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold US interest rates steady on May 7. Kalshi is now pricing in expectations of three more interest rate cuts in 2025.
New Hampshire becomes first US state to adopt crypto reserve
On May 6, New Hampshire became the first US state government permitted to buy cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, after its Governor signed House Bill 302 into law.
Loopscale to re-enable vault withdrawals Thursday
On May 7, Loopscale said the Solana lending protocol will re-enable vault withdrawals at 10:00 a.m. EDT on May 8. The move comes after Loopscale recovered approximately $5.8 million in USDC and SOL stolen in an April 26 exploit.
By the Numbers…
